“Eventually, I think, like everything else, we’ll lead our lives online, and online polling will be the standard. But people haven’t really figured out what the kind of gold-standard methodology is for online polling.”

– Nate Silver, CEO FiveThirtyEight

Silver insists that the bandwagon effect in polling is, in fact, real. Bandwagon effect essentially means that people will primarily do something because others are doing it. This is important in polling, because if 3 large polling sites are all reporting that candidate A is ahead by 5 points, then the rest of the smaller pollsters will report the same thing with no real research. This is the concept of herding, because the large pollsters are essentially influencing the rest of the pack to the point where they are presenting numbers that have not been properly analyzed. In other words, this type of polling practice can severely misrepresent what voters are actually thinking.

“So if you remember when then-Senator Clinton upset Senator Obama in the New Hampshire primary eight years ago in 2008, she had been down by 8 points. What was remarkable is that it wasn’t just that she was down in one or two polls. It was, like, the same margin in every poll – 8 points in this very, very volatile environment. And once one pollster weighs in, especially a good poll, then people say – you know, what? – I’m not quite sure what’s going on here, but I feel more comfortable in the pack.”

– Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

Silver’s example perfectly explains the bandwagon effect and herding. Silver calls Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire an upset. However, it was really just a misrepresentation of the voters true thinking. This calls into question the accuracy of polls, especially when they are being used to help decide our next leaders. Silver expressed worry for the future of polling with cell phones and declining response rates. The current response rate in the United States is at 9 percent. Obviously 9 percent of respondents is not representative of the entire country.

Despite the inaccuracy of primary and caucus polling, one interesting point Silver made was the relative accuracy of polling in a general election. General election polling is typically closer to the election date and can accurately represent how a state will vote. So, the next time you hear a politician, pundit, or pollster quote the latest polls in your state’s primary or caucus, be wary of exactly what that means.

“And it’s kind of an exercise in humility in the primaries, whereas in the general election, they have a record of being pretty accurate. So basically, all that we do is we run around during the primaries telling people – be careful. Be careful. The polls are not that reliable. And then in the general election, people are trained to be very wary of the polls. They, historically, have turned out to be very accurate instead. So we kind of flip around and say, you know, actually, I know it’s only October, but the polls have been right nine out of 10 times by this point in the year.”

– Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

Source: NPR

At Follow My Vote, we believe that we have found the standard that Silver discussed. We envision an open source, end-to-end verifiable voting system. Vote where you count, and sign up below for the 2016 Parallel Presidential Election. Help us make history in 2016.

About the author: Tyler Molihan is a Marketing Intern at Follow My Vote. He hopes to increase awareness about the benefits of online voting systems.

The post Are Polls Still Reliable in 2016? appeared first on Follow My Vote.

The Brennan Center for Justice recently released a report on the status of current voting machines in the US. The results do not look good. A total of 43 states will use outdated voting machines in 2016 that are at least 10 years old. See this graphic created by NPR using the stats from the report.

Outdated voting machines are a recipe for disaster. Breakdowns are becoming more of a regular occurrence. And good luck finding any spare parts for one of these antiquated machines.  Some of the machines still use memory cards that can only hold 250 megabytes of data, which is very low by today’s standards.

Another troubling issue with these outdated voting machines is the cost of replacement. The reality is, these machines should all be replaced. But what happens when a a county can’t afford to purchase new ones? They have to make due with the ones they have, however bad they may be. The NPR article quoted an election director about becoming an expert with cans of compressed air for the purpose of clearing debris and junk that could have jammed these outdated voting machines. What ends up happening is poor counties are getting stuck with the worst machines, while wealthier counties are able purchase new ones. This creates a very different voting experience depending on where you have to vote.

And you probably have heard of this one:

Problems such as vote flipping — that’s when a voter presses one candidate’s name only to have the opponent’s name light up. It happens when the glue on touch screen machines gets old and erodes. Norden said everything’s coming to a head at once because almost every state bought new computerized voting equipment right after the disputed 2000 election, using $2 billion in federal aid. But he says now there’s neither the money nor the same sense of urgency.

In conclusion, we say this is a big indicator that we need online voting in America. Online Voting can be extremely cost effective, a participation enhancer, and a more transparent voting solution. But guess what? Online voting is illegal in many US states. This is why you should join our movement today. #OnlineVoting #Finally

Source: NPR

About the author: Will Long is the Marketing Manager of Follow My Vote.

The post Outdated Voting Machines Featured On NPR appeared first on Follow My Vote.